How the Mavericks Turned it Around in the Clutch

    

 As we all know the 2019-20 Mavericks had an abysmal record in the clutch. Their record based on their point differential should have been 49-26 but instead it was 43-32. They also struggled mightily in overtime losing 14 out of 16 at one point. Things didn't get any better when they started play in the Orlando bubble by losing a 7 point lead with 45 seconds left only to fall to the Rockets in OT and followed that up with a 2 point loss to Phoenix. Since then things have changed. The Mavs have won 4 in a row in OT behind a much improved clutch offense and a defense that has gotten key stops. Let's take a look back at those 4 overtime wins including the playoff thriller against the Clippers and last night's impressive win in Denver.

Mavs 114 Kings 110 (OT) 8-4-20

The Streak didn't begin in the prettiest fashion but defense carried the day as the Mavs held Sacramento scoreless for the final 5:17 of regulation to force overtime. In overtime the offense came alive, scoring 19 points on 4-7 shooting from the field and going 9-11 from the line. Luka was spectacular on both ends, finishing with 34 points, a career high 20 rebounds, 12 assists and playing some of the best defense he's ever played.

Mavs 136 Bucks 132 (OT) 8-8-20

You can make an argument that this is the game the Mavs finally arrived as a clutch team. It looked like more of the same as they faced a 7 point deficit with less than 2 minutes left against the team with the best record in the league. Instead they ended regulation with a 7-0 run on a Dorian Finney-Smith 3 and 2 free throws each from Porzingis and Luka. They continued their run in overtime scoring the first 9 points on 3 straight threes and never looked back. The defining play was an absolute gorgeous pass by Luka to Maxi Kleber for a 3 point play to put the Mavs up 5 with 1:08 to go after a Bucks run. Luka was spectacular again this time finishing with a career high 19 assists to go along with 36 points and 14 rebounds. Meanwhile DFS played the game of his career scoring 27 points (including 6 threes) and adding 11 rebounds.

Mavs 135 Clippers 133 (OT) 8-23-20

The question now would be would these clutch wins carry over to the playoffs. With the Mavs down 2-1 in the first round series and facing a 21 point 2nd quarter deficit without KP that question seemed moot. However more Luka Magic would see that would not be the case. Playing the best game of his young career Doncic led the Mavs all the way back and once again the Mavs headed for extra basketball. In that overtime sessions Luka turned it up yet another notch. First he hit a short jumper to tie the game with 50 seconds left and then would give the Mavs the lead with a layup with 19 seconds to go. After Marcus Morris put the Clippers ahead with a corner 3, some real Disney magic happened. Luka got the switch on the smaller Reggie Jackson and hit his patented stepback 3 at the buzzer to give the Mavs an unforgettable  win to even the series at 2. For the game Luka put up an incredible statline of 43 points, 17 rebounds and 13 assists but it was his clutch heroics that stole the show.

Mavs 124 Nuggets 117 (OT) 1-7-21

Now the question became would the Mavs clutch play in the bubble carry over into this new season and in last night's win in Denver it certainly did. Maxi came to life in the final 4 minutes hitting 3 threes including a go-ahead shot with 3 seconds left to give the Mavs the lead. He had been scoreless for the game up until those 3 shots. After Nikola Jokic's jumper forced OT, the Mavs didn't hang their heads and Luka once again took over in overtime, outscoring the Nuggets by himself 9-8. It was yet another clutch overtime win fueled by Luka's brilliance, big shots from role players and stingy defense when it mattered most. After struggling so mightily for most of last year in clutch situations, the Mavs seem to have found a formula to reverse that trend and boy is it welcome.

Predicting the 20-21 Mavs: A Month-by-Month Breakdown

 

Even though this has been the shortest off-season in NBA history, anticipation for the Mavs upcoming season couldn't be much higher. That's what having a young and up and coming team led by a 21-year-old MVP favorite will do for you. Because of COVID the NBA has only released the first half of the season's schedule so far, but let's take a look at what awaits the Mavericks in these first 37 games and make some predictions while we're at it.

December

Games: 4 (1 home, 3 away)

Games of note: at Phoenix (23rd), at LA Lakers (25th), at LA Clippers (27th)

The good news is the Mavericks open the season with 3 nationally TV games including a Christmas night showdown against the champs. The bad news is the quality of the opposition. The Mavs will be challenged especially without Kristaps Porzingis but you don't have to go back that far to the playoffs to know they can compete against some of the league's elite even without their second best player. Thus is the power of Luka.

Predicted record: 2-2

January

Games: 17 (7 home, 10 away)

Games of note: vs. Miami (1st), at Milwaukee (15th), vs. Denver (25th)

The road heavy start of the season continues in January. Thankfully KP should be back sometime during the month. The trip to Milwaukee will be much anticipated even though the Giannis to Dallas pipedream is now dead. Weirdly the month ends with two straight games in Utah followed by the first of two straight home games against the Suns.

Predicted record: 11-6

February 

Games: 14 (10 home, 4 road)

Games of note: vs. Golden State (6th), at Houston (19th), at Brooklyn (27th)

Here comes the home heavy part of the schedule and boy is it heavy. A 7 game homestand will keep the Mavs at the AAC for 2 weeks. It starts with two straight against the Warriors including a Saturday night ABC primetime game on the back end. The month ends with challenging road games in Philadelphia and Brooklyn. The Nets game is another ABC primetime affair.

Predicted Record: 9-5

March

Games: 2 (1 home, 1 road)

Games of note: at Orlando, vs. Oklahoma City

The month begins with the final game of a East coast road trip in Orlando. The Mavs will then finish off the first half of the schedule with their first game of the year against the rebuilding Thunder. Then comes the "All-Star break" which does not feature an actual All-Star Game this year.

Predicted Record: 2-0

Predicted First Half Record: 24-13

At some point we'll find out the second half of the Mavericks schedule but we do know what teams they'll be playing including two games each at home against the Lakers and Clippers. Also still to come are the Bucks and Nets only trips to the AAC. The Mavs will face Cavs, Knicks, Kings and Wizards for the first time in the second half of the season.

Predicted Second Half Record: 23-12

Predicted Overall Record: 47-25 (4th in the West, Southwest Division Champs)

My 2020-21 NBA Predictions

West

1. LA Lakers

2. LA Clippers

3. Denver

4. Dallas

5. Utah

6. Portland

7. Golden State

8. Phoenix

9. Houston

10. New Orleans

11. Memphis

12. San Antonio

13. Minnesota

14. Sacramento

15. Oklahoma City

East

1. Milwaukee

2. Boston

3. Brooklyn

4. Miami

5. Philadelphia

6. Toronto

7. Indiana

8. Atlanta

9. Washington

10. Chicago

11. Orlando

12. Charlotte

13. Cleveland

14. Detroit

15. New York

WCF: LA Lakers over LA Clippers

ECF: Milwaukee over Brooklyn

Finals: LA Lakers over Milwaukee

Awards

MVP: Luka Doncic

Rookie of the Year: LaMelo Ball

Defensive Player of the Year: Anthony Davis

Coach of the Year: Rick Carlisle

MIP: OG Anunoby

Sixth Man: Danilo Gallinari

All-NBA

First Team

G: Luka Doncic

G: Stephen Curry

F: LeBron James

F: Giannis Antetokounmpo

C: Anthony Davis

Second Team

G: Damian Lillard

G: James Harden

F: Kawhi Leonard

F: Kevin Durant

C: Nikola Jokic

Third Team

G: Devin Booker

G: Bradley Beal

F: Jayson Tatum

F: Jimmy Butler

C: Joel Embiid

All-Rookie

First Team

LaMelo Ball

Deni Avdija

Isaac Okoro

Anthony Edwards

Tyrese Haliburton

Second Team

Cole Anthony

Obi Toppin

James Wiseman

Patrick Williams

Malachi Flynn

All-Defense

First Team

G: Ben Simmons

G: Marcus Smart

F: Anthony Davis

F: Giannis Antetokounmpo

C: Bam Adebayo

Second Team

G: Josh Richardson

G: Jrue Holiday

F: Kawhi Leonard

F: Draymond Green

C: Rudy Gobert

J.J. Barea: A Mavs Career Retrospective

     

Today's release of J.J. Barea by the Mavericks truly signifies the end of an era. The last remaining player from the 2011 championship team, J.J. spent 11 unforgettable seasons in a Mavs uniform and went from an undrafted afterthought to a a key contributor on a championship team and a franchise icon. So let us look back at one of the longest and most memorable careers in franchise history.

    Barea's signing as a undrafted free agent from Northeastern via Puerto Rico barely caused a ripple on a team coming off its first Finals appearance. At just 5-10 (although he was laughably listed at 6 feet most of his career) the odds of a long career were slim especially for a player coming from a non-power conference. Therefore nobody was surprised when J.J.'s rookie season resulted in him playing just 5.8 minutes per game in 33 appearances. However one thing stood out from that rookie season and it was nothing he did in a Mavs uniform. Barea averaged 27.3 PPG in 8 games for the Mavs then D League affiliate, the Fort Worth Flyers, including back-to-back 40 point games, perhaps giving the franchise and its fans a glimpse of hope that J.J. could possibly play in this league.

    Year two brought gradually more playing time for Barea as he played in 44 games, averaging 4.3 in 10.5 minutes. The highlight of the year came when J.J. scored 25 points in the season's third game in a win against Sacramento.

    J.J.'s third season would bring upon a major upward swing as Rick Carlisle took over as Mavs coach and took an instant liking to the young Puerto Rican. For the first time Barea became a regular rotation member, averaging 20.3 MPG and scoring 7.8 PPG. J.J. even started 4 games in the playoffs helping the Mavs beat their archrival Spurs in 5 games in the first round. The 2009-10 season would bring more of the same for Barea as his numbers held steady from his breakout third season. Through 4 seasons Jose Juan Barea has clearly established himself as an NBA contributor but no one knew what heights would await him in year 5.

    The 2010-11 season did not start off well for J.J. at least when it came to shooting the three. Through December he was a frigid 10-63 from deep but once the calendar hit 2011 things turned and there they would stay. Barea would finish the season hitting 56-125 from long range but the playoffs was when he would truly make his mark on franchise history. 

    J.J. started the postseason slow recording 7 points or less in every game of the Mavs first round series win over Portland but things changed in the second round as the Mavs swept away the two time defending champion Lakers. Barea would ice game 2 with an 8 point 4th quarter so frustrating the artist then known as Ron Artest that he would take a cheap shot at J.J. resulting him getting suspended for game 3. It would not be the last cheap play by a Laker on Barea in the series of course. In Game 4 also known as the Mother's Day Massacre, J.J. would score 22 points and dish out 8 assists in a 36 point Mavs blowout win. The Lakers frustration with their inability to curtail Barea would culminate with Andrew Bynum's vicious clothesline on a Barea drive in the fourth quarter and by the way J.J. still of course made the shot. J.J. would continue his strong play in the Western Conference Finals against the Thunder, scoring 21 points in a game 1 win and 14 in the game 5 series clincher.

    On to the Finals it was for the Mavs and Barea and it just so happened the opponent was Miami, where J.J. had attended high school. In the first 3 games his impact was limited as he totaled only 15 combined points as the Mavs fell behind 2-1. It was then that Carlisle decided to switch his starting lineup inserting J.J. in place of DeShawn Stevenson for some more offensive punch. The rest was history. After scoring 8 points in the Mavs game 4 win, Barea would truly leave his mark on the series with a 17 point game 5 that included making 4-5 from three and then a 15 point, 5 assist game in the championship clincher, shooting 7-12 from the field. The Mavs had finally become champions and 5-10 J.J. Barea from Mayaguez, Puerto Rico was a huge reason why.

    J.J. became a free agent after the title and the Mavs decided to go star hunting in free agency, meaning Barea would have to leave the only NBA home he knew. He signed a 4 year-19 million dollar deal with the Minnesota Timberwolves where things would just not be the same. The team was bad and J.J. did not share the same chemistry he had with teammates in Dallas, especially Dirk Nowitzki who he formed such a dynamic partnership in the pick-and-roll.

    After 3 forgettable seasons up north, Barea was waived by Minnesota and quickly returned to the place he knew success would be all but guaranteed. Now more beloved by the Mavs fanbase thanks to the title run, Barea slid right back into his old role and flourished. In the 2015 playoffs against Houston, after Rajon Rondo quit on the team, J.J. took this place in the starting lineup and scored 17 points to go along with 13 assists in the Mavs game 4 win.

    Barea would continue to shine off the bench in the years to come even as the team's fortunes went downhill. His wily veteran play and chemistry with Dirk and another longtime Mav, Devin Harris made him one of the league's best backup point guards well into his 30's. When the Mavs drafted Luka Doncic in 2018, J.J. became a mentor to the young Slovenian sensation helping ease his transition to the NBA. J.J. also made a huge impact off-the-court as he won the league's J. Walter Kennedy Citizenship  Award in 2018 for his efforts in helping his native Puerto Rico recover from a devastating earthquake.

    Unfortunately catastrophe struck for J.J. when he tore his Achilles in game in Minnesota on January 11, 2019. But rather than sulk Barea rehabbed like crazy and would be ready in time for the start of the 19-20 season. His role would now be different, instead of regular rotation member, he was now mainly used as an option when Carlisle felt the team needed an offensive spark like in his season debut when he scored 11 second quarter points to help turnaround a game against Orlando. But most of all the Mavs valued J.J. for both the leadership he provided and his dedication to the franchise he had laid it all on the line for all these years.

    And now after signing a 2.6 million thank you present, the Mavs and J.J. have decided to go their separate ways for now as Barea looks to find another team where he can contribute. But of course we know J.J.'s time in the Mavs organization isn't truly over as a likely coaching job awaits him in Dallas whenever he decides to hang it up as a player. But for now let's appreciate a  Mavs career truly like no other that took and undersized and undrafted player with no expectations to a place in Mavs history few can much. 

Gracias for everything you've given this franchise J.J. We all know that banner would not be possible without you. Thanks for always representing yourself and the Mavericks organization with nothing but class.

My 2019-20 NBA Predictions

West

1. LA Lakers
2. LA Clippers
3. Denver
4. Houston
5. Utah
6. Golden State
7. Portland
8. Dallas
9. San Antonio
10. New Orleans
11. Sacramento
12. Oklahoma City
13. Minnesota
14. Phoenix
15. Memphis

East

1. Milwaukee
2. Philadelphia
3. Boston
4. Toronto
5. Brooklyn
6. Miami
7. Indiana
8. Orlando
9. Detroit
10. Chicago
11. Atlanta
12. New York
13. Washington
14. Charlotte
15. Clevleand

WCF: LA Clippers over LA Lakers

ECF: Milwaukee over Philadelphia

Finals: Milwaukee over LA Clippers

Awards

MVP: Giannis Antetokounmpo

Rookie of the Year: Zion Williamson

Defensive Player of the Year: Giannis Antetokounmpo

Coach of the Year: Rick Carlisle

MIP: Luka Doncic

Sixth Man of the Year: Montrezl Harrell

All-NBA

First Team

G: Stephen Curry

G: James Harden

F: Giannis Antetokounmpo

F: LeBron James

C: Nikola Jokic

Second Team

G: Luka Doncic

G: Damian Lillard

F: Kawhi Leonard

F: Anthony Davis

C: Joel Embiid

Third Team

G: Russell Westbrook

G: Kyrie Irving

F: Paul George

F: Jimmy Butler

C: Karl-Anthony Towns

All-Rookie

First Team

Zion Williamson

Ja Morant

R.J. Barrett

Coby White

Jarrett Culver

Second Team

De'Andre Hunter

Darius Garland

Tyler Herro

Brandon Clarke

Cameron Johnson

All-Defense

First Team

G: Jrue Holiday

G: Marcus Smart

F: Giannis Antetokounmpo

F: Draymond Green

C: Rudy Gobert

Second Team

G: Patrick Beverley

G: Danny Green

F: Kawhi Leonard

F: Anthony Davis

C: Joel Embiid

My NBA Awards

MVP
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
2. James Harden
3. Paul George
4. Stephen Curry
5. Nikola Jokic

Rookie of the Year
1. Luka Doncic
2. Trae Young
3. Deandre Ayton

Defensive Player of the Year
1. Rudy Gobert
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo
3. Paul George

Coach of the Year
1. Mike Budenholzer
2. Doc Rivers
3. Michael Malone

Most Improved Player
1. Pascal Siakam
2. D'Angelo Russell
3. DeAaron Fox

Sixth Man of the Year
1. Lou Williams
2. Domantas Sabonis
3. Montrezl Harrell

All-NBA
First Team
F: Giannis Antetokounmpo
F: Paul George
C: Nikola Jokic
G: James Harden
G: Stephen Curry
Second Team
F: Kevin Durant
F: Kawhi Leonard
C: Joel Embiid
G: Damian Lillard
G: Kyrie Irving
Third Team
F: LeBron James
F: Blake Griffin
C: Rudy Gobert
G: Russell Westbrook
G: Kemba Walker

All-Rookie
First Team
Luka Doncic
Trae Young
Deandre Ayton
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Marvin Bagley
Second Team
Collin Sexton
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Mitchell Robinson
Jalen Brunson
Kevin Huerter

All-Defense
First Team
F: Giannis Antetokounmpo
F: Paul George
C: Rudy Gobert
G: Marcus Smart
G: Danny Green
Second Team
F: Draymond Green
F: Kawhi Leonard
C: Joel Embiid
G: Eric Bledsoe
G: Jrue Holiday

My NBA Awards at the All-Star Break

MVP
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
2. James Harden
3. Paul George
4. Stephen Curry
5. Kevin Durant

Rookie of the Year
1. Luka Doncic
2. Deandre Ayton
3. Jaren Jackson Jr.

Defensive Player of the Year
1. Paul George
2. Rudy Gobert
3. Myles Turner

Coach of the Year
1. Mike Budenholzer
2. Michael Malone
3. Dave Joerger

Most Improved Player
1. Pasacl Siakam
2. De'Aaron Fox
3. D'Angelo Russell

Sixth Man of the Year
1. Domantas Sabonis
2. Spencer Dinwiddie
3. Lou Williams

All-NBA
First Team
F: Giannis Antetokounmpo
F: Paul George
C: Joel Embiid
G: James Harden
G: Stephen Curry
Second Team
F: Kevin Durant
F: LeBron James
C: Nikola Jokic
G: Kyrie Irving
G: Damian Lillard
Third Team
F: Kawhi Leonard
F: Blake Griffin
C: Anthony Davis
G: Russell Westbrook
G: Kemba Walker

All-Rookie
First Team
Luka Doncic
Deandre Ayton
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Trae Young
Marvin Bagley III
Second Team
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Wendell Carter
Collin Sexton
Mikal Bridges
Kevin Huerter

All-Defense
First Team
F: Paul George
F: Giannis Antetokounmpo
C: Rudy Gobert
G: Jrue Holiday
G: Marcus Smart
Second Team
F: Kawhi Leonard
F: Draymond Green
C: Myles Turner
G: Patrick Beverley
G: Klay Thompson