Monday, December 21, 2020

Predicting the 20-21 Mavs: A Month-by-Month Breakdown

 


Even though this has been the shortest off-season in NBA history, anticipation for the Mavs upcoming season couldn't be much higher. That's what having a young and up and coming team led by a 21-year-old MVP favorite will do for you. Because of COVID the NBA has only released the first half of the season's schedule so far, but let's take a look at what awaits the Mavericks in these first 37 games and make some predictions while we're at it.

December

Games: 4 (1 home, 3 away)

Games of note: at Phoenix (23rd), at LA Lakers (25th), at LA Clippers (27th)

The good news is the Mavericks open the season with 3 nationally TV games including a Christmas night showdown against the champs. The bad news is the quality of the opposition. The Mavs will be challenged especially without Kristaps Porzingis but you don't have to go back that far to the playoffs to know they can compete against some of the league's elite even without their second best player. Thus is the power of Luka.

Predicted record: 2-2

January

Games: 17 (7 home, 10 away)

Games of note: vs. Miami (1st), at Milwaukee (15th), vs. Denver (25th)

The road heavy start of the season continues in January. Thankfully KP should be back sometime during the month. The trip to Milwaukee will be much anticipated even though the Giannis to Dallas pipedream is now dead. Weirdly the month ends with two straight games in Utah followed by the first of two straight home games against the Suns.

Predicted record: 11-6

February 

Games: 14 (10 home, 4 road)

Games of note: vs. Golden State (6th), at Houston (19th), at Brooklyn (27th)

Here comes the home heavy part of the schedule and boy is it heavy. A 7 game homestand will keep the Mavs at the AAC for 2 weeks. It starts with two straight against the Warriors including a Saturday night ABC primetime game on the back end. The month ends with challenging road games in Philadelphia and Brooklyn. The Nets game is another ABC primetime affair.

Predicted Record: 9-5

March

Games: 2 (1 home, 1 road)

Games of note: at Orlando, vs. Oklahoma City

The month begins with the final game of a East coast road trip in Orlando. The Mavs will then finish off the first half of the schedule with their first game of the year against the rebuilding Thunder. Then comes the "All-Star break" which does not feature an actual All-Star Game this year.

Predicted Record: 2-0

Predicted First Half Record: 24-13

At some point we'll find out the second half of the Mavericks schedule but we do know what teams they'll be playing including two games each at home against the Lakers and Clippers. Also still to come are the Bucks and Nets only trips to the AAC. The Mavs will face Cavs, Knicks, Kings and Wizards for the first time in the second half of the season.

Predicted Second Half Record: 23-12

Predicted Overall Record: 47-25 (4th in the West, Southwest Division Champs)

Friday, December 18, 2020

My 2020-21 NBA Predictions

West

1. LA Lakers
2. LA Clippers
3. Denver
4. Dallas
5. Utah
6. Portland
7. Golden State
8. Phoenix
9. Houston
10. New Orleans
11. Memphis
12. San Antonio
13. Minnesota
14. Sacramento
15. Oklahoma City

East

1. Milwaukee
2. Boston
3. Brooklyn
4. Miami
5. Philadelphia
6. Toronto
7. Indiana
8. Atlanta
9. Washington
10. Chicago
11. Orlando
12. Charlotte
13. Cleveland
14. Detroit
15. New York

WCF: LA Lakers over LA Clippers
ECF: Milwaukee over Brooklyn
Finals: LA Lakers over Milwaukee

Awards

MVP: Luka Doncic
Rookie of the Year: LaMelo Ball
Defensive Player of the Year: Anthony Davis
Coach of the Year: Rick Carlisle
MIP: OG Anunoby
Sixth Man: Danilo Gallinari

All-NBA

First Team

G: Luka Doncic
G: Stephen Curry
F: LeBron James
F: Giannis Antetokounmpo
C: Anthony Davis

Second Team
G: Damian Lillard
G: James Harden
F: Kawhi Leonard
F: Kevin Durant
C: Nikola Jokic

Third Team
G: Devin Booker
G: Bradley Beal
F: Jayson Tatum
F: Jimmy Butler
C: Joel Embiid

All-Rookie

First Team
LaMelo Ball
Deni Avdija
Isaac Okoro
Anthony Edwards
Tyrese Haliburton

Second Team
Cole Anthony
Obi Toppin
James Wiseman
Patrick Williams
Malachi Flynn

All-Defense

First Team
G: Ben Simmons
G: Marcus Smart
F: Anthony Davis
F: Giannis Antetokounmpo
C: Bam Adebayo

Second Team
G: Josh Richardson
G: Jrue Holiday
F: Kawhi Leonard
F: Draymond Green
C: Rudy Gobert



Thursday, December 10, 2020

J.J. Barea: A Mavs Career Retrospective

     


Today's release of J.J. Barea by the Mavericks truly signifies the end of an era. The last remaining player from the 2011 championship team, J.J. spent 11 unforgettable seasons in a Mavs uniform and went from an undrafted afterthought to a a key contributor on a championship team and a franchise icon. So let us look back at one of the longest and most memorable careers in franchise history.

    Barea's signing as a undrafted free agent from Northeastern via Puerto Rico barely caused a ripple on a team coming off its first Finals appearance. At just 5-10 (although he was laughably listed at 6 feet most of his career) the odds of a long career were slim especially for a player coming from a non-power conference. Therefore nobody was surprised when J.J.'s rookie season resulted in him playing just 5.8 minutes per game in 33 appearances. However one thing stood out from that rookie season and it was nothing he did in a Mavs uniform. Barea averaged 27.3 PPG in 8 games for the Mavs then D League affiliate, the Fort Worth Flyers, including back-to-back 40 point games, perhaps giving the franchise and its fans a glimpse of hope that J.J. could possibly play in this league.

    Year two brought gradually more playing time for Barea as he played in 44 games, averaging 4.3 in 10.5 minutes. The highlight of the year came when J.J. scored 25 points in the season's third game in a win against Sacramento.

    J.J.'s third season would bring upon a major upward swing as Rick Carlisle took over as Mavs coach and took an instant liking to the young Puerto Rican. For the first time Barea became a regular rotation member, averaging 20.3 MPG and scoring 7.8 PPG. J.J. even started 4 games in the playoffs helping the Mavs beat their archrival Spurs in 5 games in the first round. The 2009-10 season would bring more of the same for Barea as his numbers held steady from his breakout third season. Through 4 seasons Jose Juan Barea has clearly established himself as an NBA contributor but no one knew what heights would await him in year 5.

    The 2010-11 season did not start off well for J.J. at least when it came to shooting the three. Through December he was a frigid 10-63 from deep but once the calendar hit 2011 things turned and there they would stay. Barea would finish the season hitting 56-125 from long range but the playoffs was when he would truly make his mark on franchise history. 

    J.J. started the postseason slow recording 7 points or less in every game of the Mavs first round series win over Portland but things changed in the second round as the Mavs swept away the two time defending champion Lakers. Barea would ice game 2 with an 8 point 4th quarter so frustrating the artist then known as Ron Artest that he would take a cheap shot at J.J. resulting him getting suspended for game 3. It would not be the last cheap play by a Laker on Barea in the series of course. In Game 4 also known as the Mother's Day Massacre, J.J. would score 22 points and dish out 8 assists in a 36 point Mavs blowout win. The Lakers frustration with their inability to curtail Barea would culminate with Andrew Bynum's vicious clothesline on a Barea drive in the fourth quarter and by the way J.J. still of course made the shot. J.J. would continue his strong play in the Western Conference Finals against the Thunder, scoring 21 points in a game 1 win and 14 in the game 5 series clincher.

    On to the Finals it was for the Mavs and Barea and it just so happened the opponent was Miami, where J.J. had attended high school. In the first 3 games his impact was limited as he totaled only 15 combined points as the Mavs fell behind 2-1. It was then that Carlisle decided to switch his starting lineup inserting J.J. in place of DeShawn Stevenson for some more offensive punch. The rest was history. After scoring 8 points in the Mavs game 4 win, Barea would truly leave his mark on the series with a 17 point game 5 that included making 4-5 from three and then a 15 point, 5 assist game in the championship clincher, shooting 7-12 from the field. The Mavs had finally become champions and 5-10 J.J. Barea from Mayaguez, Puerto Rico was a huge reason why.



    J.J. became a free agent after the title and the Mavs decided to go star hunting in free agency, meaning Barea would have to leave the only NBA home he knew. He signed a 4 year-19 million dollar deal with the Minnesota Timberwolves where things would just not be the same. The team was bad and J.J. did not share the same chemistry he had with teammates in Dallas, especially Dirk Nowitzki who he formed such a dynamic partnership in the pick-and-roll.

    After 3 forgettable seasons up north, Barea was waived by Minnesota and quickly returned to the place he knew success would be all but guaranteed. Now more beloved by the Mavs fanbase thanks to the title run, Barea slid right back into his old role and flourished. In the 2015 playoffs against Houston, after Rajon Rondo quit on the team, J.J. took this place in the starting lineup and scored 17 points to go along with 13 assists in the Mavs game 4 win.

    Barea would continue to shine off the bench in the years to come even as the team's fortunes went downhill. His wily veteran play and chemistry with Dirk and another longtime Mav, Devin Harris made him one of the league's best backup point guards well into his 30's. When the Mavs drafted Luka Doncic in 2018, J.J. became a mentor to the young Slovenian sensation helping ease his transition to the NBA. J.J. also made a huge impact off-the-court as he won the league's J. Walter Kennedy Citizenship  Award in 2018 for his efforts in helping his native Puerto Rico recover from a devastating earthquake.

    Unfortunately catastrophe struck for J.J. when he tore his Achilles in game in Minnesota on January 11, 2019. But rather than sulk Barea rehabbed like crazy and would be ready in time for the start of the 19-20 season. His role would now be different, instead of regular rotation member, he was now mainly used as an option when Carlisle felt the team needed an offensive spark like in his season debut when he scored 11 second quarter points to help turnaround a game against Orlando. But most of all the Mavs valued J.J. for both the leadership he provided and his dedication to the franchise he had laid it all on the line for all these years.

    And now after signing a 2.6 million thank you present, the Mavs and J.J. have decided to go their separate ways for now as Barea looks to find another team where he can contribute. But of course we know J.J.'s time in the Mavs organization isn't truly over as a likely coaching job awaits him in Dallas whenever he decides to hang it up as a player. But for now let's appreciate a  Mavs career truly like no other that took and undersized and undrafted player with no expectations to a place in Mavs history few can much. 

Gracias for everything you've given this franchise J.J. We all know that banner would not be possible without you. Thanks for always representing yourself and the Mavericks organization with nothing but class.






Friday, October 18, 2019

My 2019-20 NBA Predictions


West
  1. LA Lakers
  2. LA Clippers
  3. Denver
  4. Houston
  5. Utah
  6. Golden State
  7. Portland
  8. Dallas
  9. San Antonio
  10. New Orleans
  11. Sacramento
  12. Oklahoma City
  13. Minnesota
  14. Phoenix
  15. Memphis
East
  1. Milwaukee
  2. Philadelphia
  3. Boston
  4. Toronto
  5. Brooklyn
  6. Miami
  7. Indiana
  8. Orlando
  9. Detroit
  10. Chicago
  11. Atlanta
  12. New York
  13. Washington
  14. Charlotte
  15. Clevleand

WCF: LA Clippers over LA Lakers
ECF: Milwaukee over Philadelphia
Finals: Milwaukee over LA Clippers

Awards
MVP: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Rookie of the Year: Zion Williamson
Defensive Player of the Year: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Coach of the Year: Rick Carlisle
MIP: Luka Doncic
Sixth Man of the Year: Montrezl Harrell

All-NBA
First Team
G: Stephen Curry
G: James Harden
F: Giannis Antetokounmpo
F: LeBron James
C: Nikola Jokic
Second Team
G: Luka Doncic
G: Damian Lillard
F: Kawhi Leonard
F: Anthony Davis
C: Joel Embiid
Third Team
G: Russell Westbrook
G: Kyrie Irving
F: Paul George
F: Jimmy Butler
C: Karl-Anthony Towns

All-Rookie
First Team
Zion Williamson
Ja Morant
R.J. Barrett
Coby White
Jarrett Culver
Second Team
De'Andre Hunter
Darius Garland
Tyler Herro
Brandon Clarke
Cameron Johnson

All-Defense
First Team
G: Jrue Holiday
G: Marcus Smart
F: Giannis Antetokounmpo
F: Draymond Green
C: Rudy Gobert
Second Team
G: Patrick Beverley
G: Danny Green
F: Kawhi Leonard
F: Anthony Davis
C: Joel Embiid


Wednesday, April 10, 2019

My NBA Awards

MVP
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
2. James Harden
3. Paul George
4. Stephen Curry
5. Nikola Jokic

Rookie of the Year
1. Luka Doncic
2. Trae Young
3. Deandre Ayton

Defensive Player of the Year
1. Rudy Gobert
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo
3. Paul George

Coach of the Year
1. Mike Budenholzer
2. Doc Rivers
3. Michael Malone

Most Improved Player
1. Pascal Siakam
2. D'Angelo Russell
3. DeAaron Fox

Sixth Man of the Year
1. Lou Williams
2. Domantas Sabonis
3. Montrezl Harrell

All-NBA
First Team
F: Giannis Antetokounmpo
F: Paul George
C: Nikola Jokic
G: James Harden
G: Stephen Curry
Second Team
F: Kevin Durant
F: Kawhi Leonard
C: Joel Embiid
G: Damian Lillard
G: Kyrie Irving
Third Team
F: LeBron James
F: Blake Griffin
C: Rudy Gobert
G: Russell Westbrook
G: Kemba Walker

All-Rookie
First Team
Luka Doncic
Trae Young
Deandre Ayton
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Marvin Bagley
Second Team
Collin Sexton
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Mitchell Robinson
Jalen Brunson
Kevin Huerter

All-Defense
First Team
F: Giannis Antetokounmpo
F: Paul George
C: Rudy Gobert
G: Marcus Smart
G: Danny Green
Second Team
F: Draymond Green
F: Kawhi Leonard
C: Joel Embiid
G: Eric Bledsoe
G: Jrue Holiday


Tuesday, February 19, 2019

My NBA Awards at the All-Star Break

MVP
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
2. James Harden
3. Paul George
4. Stephen Curry
5. Kevin Durant

Rookie of the Year
1. Luka Doncic
2. Deandre Ayton
3. Jaren Jackson Jr.

Defensive Player of the Year
1. Paul George
2. Rudy Gobert
3. Myles Turner

Coach of the Year
1. Mike Budenholzer
2. Michael Malone
3. Dave Joerger

Most Improved Player
1. Pasacl Siakam
2. De'Aaron Fox
3. D'Angelo Russell

Sixth Man of the Year
1. Domantas Sabonis
2. Spencer Dinwiddie
3. Lou Williams

All-NBA
First Team
F: Giannis Antetokounmpo
F: Paul George
C: Joel Embiid
G: James Harden
G: Stephen Curry
Second Team
F: Kevin Durant
F: LeBron James
C: Nikola Jokic
G: Kyrie Irving
G: Damian Lillard
Third Team
F: Kawhi Leonard
F: Blake Griffin
C: Anthony Davis
G: Russell Westbrook
G: Kemba Walker

All-Rookie
First Team
Luka Doncic
Deandre Ayton
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Trae Young
Marvin Bagley III
Second Team
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Wendell Carter
Collin Sexton
Mikal Bridges
Kevin Huerter

All-Defense
First Team
F: Paul George
F: Giannis Antetokounmpo
C: Rudy Gobert
G: Jrue Holiday
G: Marcus Smart
Second Team
F: Kawhi Leonard
F: Draymond Green
C: Myles Turner
G: Patrick Beverley
G: Klay Thompson

Thursday, December 27, 2018

The Best Mavs Rookie Seasons



Luka Doncic's phenomenal beginning to his rookie season has made him the heavy favorite to become only the second Maverick player to win NBA Rookie of the Year. Let's see how he stacks up with the best rookie campaigns in franchise history.

Jay Vincent (1981-82)
Mark Aguirre was supposed to be the Mavs standout rookie after the team drafted him first overall after their inaugural season. However it was the team's second round pick who ended up stealing the headlines, taking advantage while Aguirre played in only 51 games due to injury. Vincent averaged a team rookie record of 21.4 points per game on his way to being named first team All-Rookie, finishing 3rd in Rookie of the Year voting. Vincent would go on to play 5 additional solid seasons for the Mavs but would never reach the heights he did as a rookie.

Sam Perkins (1984-85)
Perkins was drafted fourth overall, a pick behind some guy named Jordan and contributed instantly to a young and talented Mavs squad. Perkins averaged 11.0 points and 7.4 rebounds as he became the team's second first team All-Rookie selection. Perkins upped his game in the postseason where he averaged 16.0 points and 10.9 rebounds in 4 playoff games.

Roy Tarpley (1986-87)
The Mavs had another All-Rookie selection with the 7th pick in the 1986 draft. Tarpley averaged 7.5 and 7.1 rebounds in his rookie season as he backed up Perkins and James Donaldson. Like Perkins he stepped his game up in the playoffs with averages of 13.3 points and 10.5 rebounds. Tarpley would build on his rookie season by winning Sixth Man of the Year in his sophomore season but unfortunately drug and alcohol problems wrecked what would have a very productive career.

Jamal Mashburn (1993-94)
The second of the 3 Js to join the Mavs, Mashburn showed great promise in his rookie season on an otherwise dismal 13 win team. Mashburn averaged 19.2 points per game and finished 3rd in Rookie of the Year voting behind Chris Webber and Penny Hardaway. He also tied for the team scoring lead with the previous year's first round pick, Jim Jackson.

Jason Kidd (1994-95)
Kidd became the Mavs first and for now only Rookie of the Year, sharing the title with Grant Hill. Kidd put up 11.7 points, 7.7 assists and 5.4 rebounds per game but most importantly helped bump the Mavericks win total from 13 to 36. Kidd would notch 4 of his career 107 triple-doubles as a rookie including a 38 point, 11 rebound and 10 assist masterpiece in a 156-147 double overtime win at Houston on April 11. Kidd of course would go on to have a Hall of Fame career and helped lead the Mavs to the 2011 title in his second stint with the club.

Josh Howard and Marquis Daniels (2003-04)
The Mavs didn't have too many rookies contribute a lot during the long run of success in the Dirk era, but the 2003-04 season was an exception as Howard and Daniels both emerged as valuable rotation members on a 52 win team. Howard, the team's first round pick, contributed from day one putting up 8.6 points and 5.5 rebounds in 23.7 minutes per game. Daniels, an undrafted free agent, didn't play much at first but finished the year strong. In March and Arpil, Daniels put up 14.0 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game as he entered the starting lineup. Both Howard and Daniels ended up receiving second team All-Rookie nods.

Dennis Smith Jr. (2017-18)
In his rookie year last season, Smith put up numbers that hadn't been seen by a Mavs rookie in a long time. Starting in all 69 games he played in (nice), Smith was second on the team in scoring with 15.2 points per game as well as second in assists with 5.2 per contest. That was good enough to earn DSJ a spot on the All-Rookie Second Team. The high point of Smith's season came in late December when he became one of the youngest players ever to record a triple double when he put 21, 10 and 10 in a win at New Orleans. He followed up that performance by taking over in crunch time with 19 points in a win at OKC on New Year's Eve.

Luka Doncic (2018-19)
And now we have Luka, who is doing things previously unseen by a teenager. His 19.0 PPG leads all rookies and he also ranks second in rebounds (6.7) and assists (5.1). He's even stepped it up another notch of late, putting up 22.9 points, 6.8 rebounds and 7.4 assists over his last 8 appearances. Pretty amazing stuff for someone who won't turn 20 until February 28. Despite a very strong rookie class the Mavs having their second ever Rookie of the Year seems to be a forgone conclusion, barring injuries of course. The Mavs have seen a lot of very good rookie seasons in their 39 years as a franchise but nothing like what we're currently witnessing from the Slovenian teenage Wonder Boy.